COLLAPSE OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN CIRCULATION: CAN IT, HAS IT, WILL IT?

1-3 June 2026

Initiated and led by GRC steering group member Graeme MacGilchrist, with Director Rae and international partners, this workshop brought 60 of the world’s leading experts on ocean circulation – spanning dynamics, observations, paleo, dynamical systems, and modelling – to examine the future fate of the Atlantic’s circulation. Funded by from ARIA’s Forecasting Tipping Points programme, the workshop, and associated webinars, had three key objectives:

1) To encourage productive engagement and discussion within and across disciplinary boundaries on the subject of Atlantic Ocean circulation change and possible collapse.

2) To clearly and precisely identify areas of agreement, disagreement, and general confusion within the community.

3) To discuss avenues for further research that will most effectively resolve disagreements and trend the community towards consensus on key outstanding questions.

Creative breakout sessions and activities allowed participants to have constructive discussions across different disciplines and viewpoints, clarifying the state of our current understanding and priority areas for future progress.